Place for all future traders

------fkli2u@gmail.com------

FKLI-NEXT Technical Analysis - 26 Feb 2009

Friday, February 27, 2009

We are moving our attention to FKLI-Next which is Mar2009. As indicated the volume spikes every end of the month with bull strength. Suggesting uptrend for the last trading day for Feb 2009. Immediate resistance @ 890.5, 888, 885 while resistance @ 899, 905, 909.

HAPPY TRADING!

DMA For Future Market - Part 4 Comparison

Thursday, February 26, 2009

** Information above are personal finding and not represent the official release by the trading house. All information above subject to change without prior notice from publisher nor trading house. Any update from anyone is much appreciated. Enjoy

 

Trading House

DMA Rate

Normal call in rate

Platform Monthly Fees

AmFuture

RM36

RM40

RM250

**rebate if minimum number of lots transacted per month

    

Philips Future

25% cheaper than normal market rate

Normal market rate

Free

** DMA for Malaysia future market only available from May 2009 onwards. Philips Future will launch DMA by end of Mar 2009 for overseas future market.

  

RHB Investment

** Still in testing mode, will only launch it in the middle of the year. No information on rate as well as platform fees


 

HAPPY TRADING

FKLI Technical Analysis - 25 Feb 2009


FKLI moving along 888-893.5 with few times of support line testing @ 888 with volume 32% lesser than yesterday. FKLI finally closed @ 893.5.


BB Band width remain consistant with immediate support @ 888, 885 and resistance @ 896.5, 899.

Gap Trading Strategies - Part 1

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Today in the chat room a honourable member "asiatrader98" mentioned about gap trading. That is a new term for me and I've did some research on gap trading. I'd like to take this opportunity to share information I found and hopefully it can benefits other. Hope you like it.

Gap trading is a simple and disciplined approach to buying and shorting stocks. Essentially one finds stocks that have a price gap from the previous close and watches the first hour of trading to identify the trading range. Rising above that range signals a buy, and falling below it signals a short.

What is a Gap?

A gap is a change in price levels between the close and open of two consecutive days. Although most technical analysis manuals define the four types of gap patterns as Common, Breakaway, Continuation and Exhaustion, those labels are applied after the chart pattern is established. That is, the difference between any one type of gap from another is only distinguishable after the stock continues up or down in some fashion. Although those

classifications are useful for a longer-term understanding of how a particular stock or sector reacts, they offer little guidance for trading.

For trading purposes, we define four basic types of gaps as follows:

A Full Gap Up occurs when the opening price is greater than yesterday's high price.

In the chart below, the open price for June 2, indicated by the small tick mark to the left of the second bar in June (green arrow), is higher than the previous day's close, shown by the right-side tick mark on the June 1 bar.

A Full Gap Down occurs when the opening price is less than yesterday's low. The chart below shows both a full gap up on August 18 (green arrow) and a fullgap down the next day (red arrow).


A
Partial Gap Up occurs when today's opening price is higher than yesterday's close, but not higher than yesterday's high.

The next chart depicts the partial gap up on June 1 (red arrow), and the full gap up on June 2 (green arrow).

A Partial Gap Down occurs when the opening price is below yesterday's close, but not below yesterday's low.

The red arrow on the chart, below, shows where the stock opened below the previous close, but not below the previous low.

Why Use Trading Rules?

In order to successfully trade gapping stocks, one should use a disciplined set of entry and exit rules to signal trades and minimize risk. Additionally, gap trading strategies can be applied to weekly, end-of-day, or intraday gaps. It is important for longer-term investors to understand the mechanics of gaps, as the 'short' signals can be used as the exit signal to sell holdings.

DMA For Future Market - Part 3

** Article below captured from AmeSecurities brochure

WHAT IS DMA?
Direct Market Access (DMA) is an electronic facility that allows you to directly access
 liquidity for financial securities and multiple execution venues directly without the intervention of brokers. DMA enables users to enter their orders on a screen display and have their orders sent directly to the exchange.

WHY SHOUD I CHOOSE DMA?
As of 2008, studies show, almost 38% of buy side equity shares are executed through DMA and s still growing. Though still in its infancy stages, more and more high volume traders are rapidly adopting DMA as a method to agreegate liquidity, AmInvestment now offers you the opportunity to trade in deriviates via DMA and by end of 2009, equities as well. The time saved with DMA gives the critical edge needed for user in today's electronic age. The next frontier would be to expand DMA connectivitiy into the international market.

BENEFITS OF DMA
- DMA offers lower transactions cost.
- DMA orders are not executed by brokers; instead are sent directly to the exchange so there is less chance of error or execution irregularities.
- Traders are able to take advantage of very short lived market opportunities with swift order executions via DMA.

FKLI Technical Analysis - 24 Feb 2009

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

FKLI started 8 points lower @ 876, recovering but moving arround within 882 level. FKLI moving higher in the late afternoon with 52% higher volume than yesterday and close @ 887.5.


As viewed in the chart below, FKLI close above SMA(20) level @ 885 which makes it an immediate support level, follow by 883 & 880. Immediate resistance @ 888, 890 & SMA(100) 897. Bollinger band width remain consistance with RSI stay in neutral zone.


HAPPY Trading!!

DMA For Future Market - Part 2

I've been looking arround in the market for broker/trading house which provides DMA (Direct Market Access) which allows future traders perform online trading without going thru a broker. As explained in "DMA For Future Market - Part 1", benefits of using DMA includes speed of transaction execution & most importantly lower brokerage cost. So who are the local (Malaysia) trading house that provides DMA?


Who Are The Local (Malaysia) Trading House That Provides DMA?
I'm listing local trading house which I managed to check or aware so far. I could have miss out some of them out there and appreciate if anyone who knows any trading house that I'm not listing here can notify me to add them in.

1. AmFuture 

2. Philips Future 

3. RHB Investment 

I'll try my best to check with them the actual broker fees and compile/summarize the comparison in the next release. Stay tuned.

FKLI Technical Analysis - 23 Feb 2009

Monday, February 23, 2009


FKLI experienced rebound from last Friday drop with positive sentiment from stronger USD/MYR. FKLI closed at 6 points higher and 8104 lot transacted. Charts above shows the immediate resistance at SMA(20) 885 follow with SMA(100) 899.

Once MACD chart cross below 0 level further bearish trend will happen with immediate support @ 873 follow by 861.

HAPPY TRADING 

FKLI 5min Snapshot @ 0940 23 Feb 2009. LONG @ 882 (Latest Update SOLD @ 886)

Chart above shown FKLI 5min snapshot @ 9.40am. Strong signal for MACD golden cross and BB band expanding with candle riding above top BB. 

LONG!!

** LATEST UPDATE, I've sold my LONG @ 886 with 4 pts small profit.

FKLI Technical Analysis - 20 Feb 2009

As shown in the FKLI daily chart below, FKLI has slump 17 points on Friday with volume of nearly double of Thursday volume. FKLI resistance remains at SMA(100) at 900, immediate support @ 873


Happy Trading!!!


DMA For Future Market - Part 1

What is Direct Market Access (DMA)

As the name suggests, using DMA, and entity can trade directly in an exchange - just likes brokers do. There is no need to place an order through a broker.


Advantages of Direct Market Access (DMA)

Speed

The main advantage of DMA in that it results in faster order placement and execution.

Till now, the institutions had to convey their orders to a broker, and the broker would place the orders. This means that the same information had to be conveyed twice, which resulted in delays, and, at times, errors.

Now, with Direct Market Access, the institutions would be able to place the orders directly in the market.



Cost Saving

Cutting down an intermediary would result in significant cost savings for the institutions.


Enable Algorithmic Trading

Since the institutions would be allowed to access the market directly, they can now develop and deploy computers running complex mathematical algorithms, which would place buy and sell orders automatically.

This would be a totally new avenue, and in the future, even mutual funds specializing in algorithmic trading can be introduced.

Bollinger Band & MACD Upbeat Fib?

Friday, February 20, 2009

Some of you who follow the chat box yesterday might notice I was mentioned that BB band expanding and MACD golden cross up beat Fib retracement. I'd like to take this opportunity to share further what I mean and hoping for some comment from experts to feedback on my view.

As indicated by the greed arrow in MACD chart, it indicate a golden cross plus BB band expanding with candle rides above mid BB. This indicates a strong uptrend even it touches Fib retracement 50% & 61.8% level.

Dear FKLI experts, please comment on my analysis. Thanks and Happy Trading!

Market Outlook Seminar -Penang (21/02/09) by CIMB

Thursday, February 19, 2009

CIMB is conducting a seminar on market outlook. Detail as below:

Date

21 February 2009 (Saturday)

 

 

Venue

 

Kompleks Masyarakat Penyayang

Jalan Utama

10460 Penang

 

Time

9:30am – 12:45pm

Admission

Free (pre-registration is a pre-requisite)



Click here to view programme.

For registration, please email us at itradepg@cimb.com or contact us at 04-2385 938 by

19 February 2009 (Thursday)

FKLI Technical Analysis - 18 Feb 2009

FKLI open low yesterday morning resulted from DJ red a night before. It touches Fib 23.6% following with retracement upwards but not over Fib 38.2%. With only 0.04% minor DJ recovery on 18 Feb it doesn't bring any significant impact and FKLI will remain bearish and volatile. Immediate resistance @ 895, 900 and support @ 888, 882


HAPPY TRADING!

FKLI Technical Analysis - 17 Feb 2009

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

FKLI rally with mostly downward and closed 17.5 pts lower from 904 to 886.5. Total transaction volume was 5784 which is higher than volume on 16 Feb 2009 @ 3719.


FKLI highest price touching Fib Retracement 50% level and lower hitting Fib Retracement 23.6% @ 885. Bollinger band continue contracting. There isn't any potential good news coming out from Malaysia besides 2nd stimulus plan which no one know when is the announcement going to be. It is expecting continue downtrend tomorrow.

Happy Trading.

FKLI Technical Analysis - 16 Feb 2009

Monday, February 16, 2009


FKLI experience volatility today open in red, recovered positively touching Fibbonaci Retracement 61.8% but couldn't break it. It follows with downtrend moving below 906 and finally gain some momentum at the late trading hour ends up closed at 3 points gaining. 

Overall volume continuously decrease and Bollinger Band still in contracting wave and it indicate consolidation. Current critical resistance which is also Fib 61.8% is @ 914. Short term FKLI might experience some down turn with immediate support @ 888, 885 and 880 while resistance @ Fib 61.8% level which is 914, follow by 920.

Happy Trading! 

16 Feb 2009 NOTIFICATION 3: TRADING RESUMES AS NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON SESSION; PRE-OPENING DELAYED

Pre-opening for the afternoon trading session on the Bursa Malaysia Securities and Derivatives market will be as follows:

Equities market

  • Pre-opening time: 2:20pm - 2:30pm
  • Trading : 2:30pm as normal

Derivatives market
1. Equity linked (FKLI, OKLI & SSF) and financial products

  • Pre-opening time: 2:20pm - 2:30pm
  • Trading : 2:30pm as normal

2. Commodity derivatives products

  • Pre-opening time: 2:30pm - 3:00pm as normal
  • Trading : 3:00pm as normal

However, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia indices (FBM indices) will not be available to the market for the time being.

All market participants have been duly notified. 

16 Feb 2009 NOTIFICATION 2: PRE-OPENING ON EQUITIES AND DERIVATIVES MARKET DELAYED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE

Pre-opening on the Bursa Malaysia Securities and Derivatives market will be delayed for the afternoon trading session until further notice. The Exchange is still working to resolve the problem encountered with its price dissemination system.

All market participants have been duly notified and will be updated of the progress. 

16 Feb 2009 NOTIFICATION: TRADING ON EQUITIES AND DERIVATIVES MARKET HALTED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE

Trading on the Bursa Malaysia Securities and Derivatives was halted commencing 12:19pm this afternoon following a problem encountered with its price dissemination system.

All market participants have been duly notified and will be updated of the progress. Bursa Malaysia is investigating the problem and will notify the market of any updates.

FKLI Technical Analysis - 13 Feb 2009

FKLI has a surge of 14.5 pts on Friday. It is a good indication but from the chart above you can view the Bollinger Band still contracting, it indicate a potential downtrend. Fibonacci Retracement also indicates it touched 61.8% retracement, suggesting that it will follows with a downtrend.

Understanding Volume & Open Interest in Commodity Futures

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Technicians utilize a three dimensional approach to market analysis which includes a study of price, volume and open interest. Of these three, price is the most important. However, volume and open interest provide important secondary confirmation of the price action on a chart and often provide a lead indication of an impending change of trend. For beginning students of the market these two concepts tend to be somewhat confusing but are very important concepts to understand in- undertaking a thorough analysis of market action.

Volume represents the total amount of trading activity or contracts that have changed hands in a given commodity market for a single trading day. The greater the amount of trading during a market session the higher will be the trading volume. As mentioned earlier, a higher volume bar on the chart means that the trading activity was heavier for that day. Another way to look at this, is that the volume represents a measure of intensity or pressure behind a price trend. The greater the volume the more we can expect the existing trend to continue rather than reverse. Technicians believe that volume precedes price, meaning that the loss of upside price pressure in an uptrend or downside pressure in a downtrend will show up in the volume figures before presenting itself as a reversal in trend on the bar chart.

Open Interest is the total number of outstanding contracts that are held by market participants at the end of each day. Where volume measures the pressure or intensity behind a price trend, open interest measures the flow of money into the futures market. For each seller of a futures contract there must be a buyer of that contract. Thus a seller and a buyer combine to create only one contract. Therefore, to determine the total open interest for any given market we need only to know the totals from one side or the other, buyers or sellers, not the sum of both.

Each trade completed on the floor of a futures exchange has an impact upon the level of open interest for that day. For example, if both parties to the trade are initiating a new position ( one new buyer and one new seller), open interest will increase by one contract. If both traders are closing an existing or old position ( one old buyer and one old seller) open interest will decline by one contract. The third and final possibility is one old trader passing off his position to a new trader ( one old buyer sells to one new buyer). In this case the open interest will not change. By monitoring the changes in the open interest figures at the end of each trading day, some conclusions about the day’s activity can be drawn. Increasing open interest means that new money is flowing into the marketplace. The result will be that the present trend ( up, down or sideways) will continue. Declining open interest means that the market is liquidating and implies that the prevailing price trend is coming to an end. A knowledge of open interest can prove useful toward the end of major market moves. A levelling off of steadily increasing open interest following a sustained price advance is often an early warning of the end to an uptrending or bull market.

The relationship between the prevailing price trend, volume, and open interest can be summarized by the following table.

 

Price
Volume
Open Interest
Interpretation
Rising
Rising
Rising
Market is Strong
Rising
Falling
Falling
Market is Weakening
Falling
Rising
Rising
Market is Weak
Falling
Falling
Falling
Market is Strengthening

 

It is important to understand that the commodity price chart only records the data. In itself, it has little value. By monitoring the price trend, volume and open interest the technician is better able to gauge the buying or selling pressure behind market moves. This information can be used to confirm a price move or warn that a price move is not to be trusted. This will provide you with valuable information to develop a suitable pricing strategy and an appropriate production-marketing plan for your farming operation.

Volume Moving Average - VMA

Friday, February 13, 2009

This is an indicator used in charts and technical analysis. It refers to the average volume of a security, commodity or index constructed in a period as short as a few minutes or as long as several years and shows trends for the latest interval. As each new variable is included in calculating the average, the last variable of the series is deleted.

This has to be one of the most important tools for our indicators. This is where you select the moving average period to apply to the volume. Normally, volume can be somewhat turbulent and you may see surges here and there due to some large trades. With the volume moving average (VMA) you can smooth out those fluctuations so you can see where the general direction of the volume is going (i.e. increasing or decreasing).

Generally, when an index decreases and a volume moving average increases at the same time, you can expect a reversal in the index at the point the VMA surge peaks and begins to decrease again. The same is true for when an index is increasing.

Below is a list of recommended VMA settings for every period in our charts. We recommend the following VMA settings because they tend to work the best in showing signals of future market trends.

Table #1: Recommended VMA settings 

Period

SBV VMA Period

Fast VMA

Slow VMA

1 bar value

http://www.marketvolume.com/images/shim.gif

http://www.marketvolume.com/images/shim.gif

http://www.marketvolume.com/images/shim.gif

http://www.marketvolume.com/images/shim.gif

http://www.marketvolume.com/images/shim.gif

Intraday Indicators

 2-Hour Period

1-20 bars

1-20 bars

40-100 bars

1 minute

 1-Day Period

5-30 bars

5-30 bars

60-100 bars

1 minute


Short-Term Indicators

 5-Day Period

7-25 bars

 7-25 bars

70-200 bars

5 minutes

 15-Day Period

7-25 bars

7-25 bars

70-200 bars

15 minutes

 30-Day Period

7-25 bars

7-25 bars

70-200 bars

30 minutes

 60-Day Period

7-25 bars

7-25 bars

70-200 bars

1 hour


Mid-Term Indicators

 3-Months Period

3-8 bars

3-8 bars

40-80 bars

1 day

 6-Months Period

3-8 bars

3-8 bars

40-80 bars

1 day

 1-Year Period

3-8 bars

3-8 bars

40-80 bars

1 day

 1.5-Year Period

3-8 bars

3-8 bars

40-80 bars

1 day

 2-Year Period

3-8 bars

3-8 bars

40-80 bars

2 days


Long-Term Indicators

 3-Year Period

3-8 bars

3-8 bars

40-80 bars

3 days

 4-Year Period

3-8 bars

3-8 bars

40-80 bars

3 days

 5-Year Period

3-8 bars

3-8 bars

40-80 bars

5 days

 7-Year Period

3-8 bars

3-8 bars

40-80 bars

7 days

 10-Year Period

3-8 bars

3-8 bars

40-80 bars

10 days

 Weekly

3-8 bars

3-8 bars

40-80 bars

1 week

 Monthly

3-8 bars

3-8 bars

40-80 bars

1 month

Be careful! You should not set the volume moving average too high or too low, as you will either smooth out the volume too much or make it too erratic. For example, on a 5-day chart, a 60-minute VMA works best, and for a 1-day chart, a 30-minute VMA works well.

Subscribe in a reader