World Cup Fever! – FKLI 100615

Nothing much to mention with the current quite and calm markets that we are experiencing now, world cup fever superseded the financial market fever! Market without volatility is hard to trade, investors can only profit from the range trading.
For mid to long term trading, we will maintain our bearish call for futures so long as the 1303 of the cash market is not being taken out. The support for the day is seen at 1295 level and the resistance is seen at 1308 – 1310 levels.

US MARKET

Overnight US market gave back all the profit gained in the early session and closed in the negative territory after Greece being downgraded by Moody to non-investment grade (junk bond) and the inability to breakthrough the MA 200 important overhead resistance level.
Overall technical remain weak so long the MA 200 level is not being taken out convincingly. The support is seen at 10100 level and the resistance is seen at 10315 level.

[Reminder:
1) China market will close today in accordance with the celebration of Dragon Boat Day. 2) US will release its NAHB Housing Market Index (Survey 21 Vs Prior 22) later tonight.]

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The information herein was obtained or derived from the source that we believed are reliable.No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report.All opinions and estimates included in this report constitutes our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

Lackluster Week Ahead… – FKLI 100614

For this week, we are expecting the market to trade sideway in accordance with school holiday and the start of world cup. No major upside or downside movement is expected, at least for this week.

Technically, both the indices (futures and cash) will need to convincingly break through the 1303 level (MA 100) to return to positive trading, failure for this level to be taken out convincingly, the indices will be defended strongly by the bears.

We will temporary maintain our bearish bias towards the market and remain that investors who have shorted the futures should exercise stop loss if the cash manages to break through the 1303 level convincingly. Although this round of uptrend (if the 1303 is being taken out convincingly) will be mild, targeted the most will be reaching the 1320 level only, those who are risk averse should not take this kind of risk and should only re-initiate short position if the 1320 level achieved.

On the other hand, for US market, the DJIA needs to regain its posture above the MA 200 level to resume its uptrend, failure for this level to be taken out, the US market will remain in negative territory. In our opinion, the US market will have some mild technical rebound for this week with immediate resistance is seen at the MA 200 level – 10315.

[Reminder: Australia and China's market is closed for today in accordance with the celebration of Queen's Birthday and Dragon Boat Day.]


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The information herein was obtained or derived from the source that we believed are reliable.No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report.All opinions and estimates included in this report constitutes our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

Is Bull Back? – FKLI 100611

To answer the above question, is still early at this stage, but to us, at least not at the moment and the uptrend will be capped for now. Reasons as below:-
1)      Overall technical indicators remain weak at the moment with the US index still trading below the Bollinger middle band and the MA 200 level.
2)      The second quarter is about the end and historically third quarter is a slow and slightly weak market.
3)      World still clouded with negative fundamentals, especially the news on SEC is probing a second Goldman Sachs CDO in addition to the Abacus transaction.
4)      The start of World Cup.

We are expecting the FKLI to open higher and today's surge will also give the chance for the cash to close the gap set on 21st May 2010 (Please refer to yesterday report for more detail).

If the market is convincingly breaking through the 1303 level and able to sustain above this level, then for these 1 – 2 weeks, the bears may need to temporary give way for the bulls, failure for this level to be taken out will result in bears relaxing in handling this battle.
So what shall the investors do? For those who have initiated short position, you can still hold on to your short position and look at how the market perform for today first, but if your risk tolerance level is lower, do initiate stop loss above the 1303 level.
For today, the support is seen at 1285 level and the resistance is seen at 1303 – 1305 levels.

US MARKET
Overnight US market regained its posture above the 10,000 level with gains of 273 points, +2.76% on better commodities prices, gained in euro and economic data showed the accelerating growth. The index currently remain below the Bollinger middle band and the MA 200, failure for these two levels being taken out convincingly will result in the DJIA remains in negative territory.
[Reminder: US will release its Retail Sales (Survey 0.2% Vs Prior 0.4%) later tonight.]

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The information herein was obtained or derived from the source that we believed are reliable.No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report.All opinions and estimates included in this report constitutes our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

Ahead of 10th Malaysia Plan – FKLI 100610

Morning session will be a slow session ahead of our PM's release of 10th Malaysia Plan and the market may experience some minor sell off near the end of the first session. The overall technical landscape does not change at the moment and still bias towards downside with thin volume expected throughout these two weeks.

In our view, the cash may slowly climb higher and close the gap set on 21st of May before it resumes its downside trading (please refer to the graph). No matter what, the cash overall technical landscape is similar to futures and downside trading is expected as well.
We will remain our bearish bias towards the market and hold to our call of Selling into Strength. Any level near to the 1300 level should remain as a good selling level. The support for the day is seen at 1280 – 1275 levels and the resistance is seen at 1293 – 1295 levels.

US MARKET
Overnight US market dropped more than 40 points as concern on BP's dividend cut to pay for the oil spill at the Gulf of Mexico. The overall technical indicators remain weak with the index trading below the important MA 200 level. We are in the view that the index has been stuck in this low level for quite some time, reducing the hope for the index to rebound above the MA 200 level in the near term.
[Reminder: US will release its Initial Jobless Claim (Survey 450K Vs Prior 453K) later tonight.]


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The information herein was obtained or derived from the source that we believed are reliable.No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report.All opinions and estimates included in this report constitutes our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

Chances to Short… – FKLI 100609

Today, the FKLI will move very near to the 1300 level in tandem with overnight surged in DJIA and the expected announcement of the 10th Malaysia Plan tomorrow, this will give a good opportunity for investor to initiate short position in tandem with our short call initiated for the week. Monday itself did not give much an opportunity to investors to initiate their short position as the gap opening was discounted too large a level from what we are looking at – short near to the 1300 level.

We are firmly remained our downside bias call towards the market with the immediate support seen at MA 200 level – 1271. FKLI currently still maintain below the Bollinger middle band (please refer to the graph attached), indicating the bearishness of the market not yet come to an end.
For today, the support is seen at 1280 – 1276 levels and the resistance is seen at 1288, followed by 1293 level.

US MARKET

Overnight US stock market traded higher in accordance with the stronger commodities prices. Technically, the overall landscape did not change much as the index still trading way below the MA 200 level. We remain our bearish bias towards the market and reminded the investors that the World Cup will start this Friday, which is only another 2 days to go.
[Reminder: US will release its CPI (Survey 0.1% Vs Prior 0.1%) later tonight.]

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The information herein was obtained or derived from the source that we believed are reliable.No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report.All opinions and estimates included in this report constitutes our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.