Market News - 30 Apr 2009

U.S. and European Market Roundup 

• The DJIA up 168.78 points to 8,185.73 points.
• U.S stocks climbed, pushing the S&P’s 500 Index toward its best month since 2000 as companies beating profit forecasts outnumbered those that trailed by 10-to-1 and investors speculated bank losses peaked.
• European stocks closed at an 11-week high on Wednesday, led by banking standout Santander and raw material companies boosted by higher crude oil and copper prices.

Macro and Corporate News 

• BNM left borrowing costs unchanged at 2.0% yesterday, but cautioned that the Malaysian economy is likely to record a marked contraction in the first quarter.
• A fresh round of talks between the Selangor government and the Energy, Green Technology and Water Ministry on the restructuring of the water sector in the Pakatan Rakyat-led state can be expected to take place next week.

FKLI-SPOT & FKLI-NEXT Technical Analysis - 29 Apr 2009

FKLI-SPOT closed marginally high as The earnings results at Siemens and French pharmaceutical firm Sanofi - Aventis gave a further boost to investor sentiments and came on the heels of more positive economic news flows in recent weeks. Furthermore trader/investor also have some hope with BNM on their move interest rate.

Bollinger Band width continue to contract with candle above middle BB. Consolidation is in place with support @ 952 and resistance @ 1003.5

************************************************************************************

FKLI-NEXT volume begin to increase today. Similar to FKLI-SPOT Bollinger Band width also contracting with candle above middle BB. This suggesting middle BB as the support @ 949 and resistance @ 1002. Even RSI begin to move away from overbought region but MACD begin to form dead cross.

Hit from the Swine Flu has bring the market further uncertainty plus labour day holiday approaching will cause further profit taking on last day of Apr 2009. Trader beware.

HAPPY TRADING!!!

Bank Negara Leaves OPR Unchanged

** Pick from TheStar @ http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/4/29/business/20090429183113&sec=business

PETALING JAYA: Bank Negara has decided to leave its key policy rate - the overnight policy rate - unchanged at 2.0% as inflation, which decelerated to 3.5% in March, is expected to moderate further amid subdued demand conditions and lower external price pressures.

The central bank said in a statement Wednesday evening following its monetary policy committee meeting that there were also tentative signs of a slower pace of decline despite global economic conditions deteriorating further in the first-quarter of 2009.

It added that the domestic economy would face a marked contraction in the first quarter of the year but is expected to improve in the second-half supported by stabilisation in global economic conditions.

Market News - 29 Apr 2009

U.S. and European Market Roundup 

• The DJIA down 8.05 points to 8,016.96 points.
• U.S stocks fell on Tuesday as fresh worries that major banks may need to raise more money offset more reassuring economic data that suggested the worst may be over and a big dividend boost from IBM.
• Over in Europe, shares lost ground on Tuesday but closed off intra-day lows as surprisingly strong U.S consumer confidence data took some of the edge off fears linked to swine flu and U.S banks' capital needs.

Macro and Corporate News 

• Jaks Resources, which is in the midst of finalising details of a planned RM6.48 bln power plant in Vietnam, is now planning to secure an estimated RM94.56 mln wastewater treatment plant construction job there.
• Deleum is bidding for contracts worth between RM300 mln and RM400 mln this year. Of these, 50-60% involves existing contracts and the rest will be new.
• Quill Capita Trust's (QCT) net profit for the 1Q ended March 31 rose 3.5% to RM7.4 mln from RM7.1 mln a year earlier, driven by contributions from the six acquisitions it made after its IPO.

FKLI Technical Analysi - 28 Apr 2009

The swine flu, first reported in North America and now appearing in Australia & Europe, may have become the catalyst for a correction in the local market including FKLI. FKLI ended lower drop 16 points to 966. Total transaction volume 18.5% lower than yesterday with 11,754 lots transacted.

Bollinger band width begin to contract indicate that market is in consolidation mode. Middle BB band become the next support level for FKLI.

MACD begin to form a dead cross with RSI begin to drop from overbought region.

Support @ middle BB band 947 while resistance @ upper BB band 1006.5.

HAPPY TRADING!!

Market News - 28 Apr 2009

U.S. and European Market Roundup 

• The DJIA down 51.29 points to 8,025.00 points.
• U.S stocks retreated as concern the swine flu outbreak will hurt travel, energy and hotel companies overshadowed gains in health-care shares and General Motors Corp’s plan to cut liabilities.
• Elsewhere, European stocks recovered to end higher on Monday after being under pressure for most of the day on fears of a swine flu pandemic with drugmakers up on hopes of more vaccine demand and other defensives also rising.

Macro and Corporate News 

• Sime Darby said it is in talks with Ramunia Holdings for a potential corporate deal. It was reported earlier that Sime may take over Ramunia in a share swap deal.
• Pantech Group Holdings, which makes pipes and fittings for the oil and gas industry, said its 4Q net profit rose 7.0% due to better sales.
• AMDB has signed a conditional sale and purchase agreement with Detik Jalur Sdn Bhd to dispose off its entire interest comprising 1.23 mln shares of RM1.00 each or a 23.33% stake in Central Spectrum (M) Sdn Bhd (CSSB) for RM16 mln cash.

FKLI Technical Analysis - 24 Apr 2009

Momentum from KLSE made FKLI continue its uptrend on 24 Apr 2009 closed 10.5 points higher @ 997.

Bollinger Band width continue to expand with candle above middle BB band. MACD still in bullish mode while RSI @ 74.9 overbought area.

Resistance @ upper BB band (1009) while support @ middle BB band (936).

Market are expected to continue uptrend but bear in mind the risk of technical correction is also nearer.

HAPPY TRADING!

Market News - 24 Apr 2009

U.S. and European Market Roundup 

• The DJIA up 70.49 points to 7,957.06 points.
• U.S stocks rose, recouping yesterday’s drop as better-than-expected results from several regional banks lifted financial shares, overshadowing disappointing economic data and anemic outlooks from economic bellwethers like United Parcel Service.
• Over in Europe, shares ended lower on Thursday in a choppy session as investors digested a raft of earnings news, banks retreated from earlier gains and U.S home sales data disappointed investors.

 Macro and Corporate News 

• The government’s move on Wednesday to remove the 30% bumiputra equity policy from 27 sub-sectors in the sprawling services sector with immediate effect may be the beginning of further liberalisation in other economic sectors.
• YTL e-Solutions (YTLE), a subsidiary of YTL Corp, plans to pump in almost RM3.0 bln to set up a wireless broadband network in Peninsular Malaysia over the next five years.

FKLI Technical Analysis - 23 Apr 2009

FKLI closed 18.5points higher @ 986.50 in-line with a regional market rally yesterday but were also boosted by feel-good sentiment after the Prime Minister announced the removal of 30% bumiputra equity requirement for 27 services sub-sector on Wednesday.

Bollinger Band width expanding with candle above middle BB. MACD still in bullish mode but RSI @ 72.8 which is overbought area. 

Resistance @ 1001 while support @ 931.

HAPPY TRADING!

FKLI Technical Analysis - 22 Apr 2009

Support @ 926

Resistance @ 993

Immediate:

Support 968, 964, 960

Resistance @ 977, 981, 985

HAPPY TRADING!

Market News - 22 Apr 2009

U.S. and European Market Roundup 

• The DJIA up 127.83 points to 7,969.56 points.
• U.S stocks advanced the most in almost two weeks, led by financial shares after Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the vast majority of the nation’s banks have enough capital.
• Over in Europe, shares ended slightly higher after choppy trade on Tuesday as strength in retailers on impressive quarterly results from Tesco outweighed the impact of shaky financial stocks.

 Macro and Corporate News 

• Malaysian automobile sales for March 2009 fell 4.8% to 44,205 units from 46,436 the same time last year, but compared to February were higher by 20.5% or 7,530 units.
• In a move to sell non-core businesses, Sime Darby has put up Hotel Equatorial Melaka for sale at an estimated RM180 mln.

Future Trading Talk by Kenanga - 29th Apr 2009

Hi all, I received an email from Kenanga mentioning that they will conduct a talk related to Future Trading on 29th Apr 2009 @ Kenanga International, Jln Sultan Ismail, KL. Whoever interested kindly contact:

Kenanga Investment Bank; KL

03-27112677; 27134673

Enjoy!

Market News - 21 Apr 2009

U.S. and European Market Roundup 

• The DJIA down 289.60 points to 7,841.73 points.
• Wall Street slid more than 3% on Monday after weak results from Bank of America reignited concerns over the state of the banking industry and the economy.
• European shares closed sharply lower on Monday with banks taking most points off the index as investors gave the thumbs down to Bank of America results marked by an increase in troubled loans.

 Macro and Corporate News 

• SP Setia is keeping mum on its plan to acquire three real estate companies under Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) to increase sales and gain financial backing from the government.
• Kumpulan Europlus (KEB) expects projects worth RM3 bln from the proposed West Coast Highway, which links Taiping to Banting and the KLIA in Sepang.
• Axis REIT recorded a 15.4% growth in net profit to RM10.4 mln in the 1Q ended March 31, from a year earlier on the back of a 19.9% surge in revenue to RM17.3 mln

Market News - 20 Apr 2009

U.S. and European Market Roundup 

• The DJIA up 5.90 points to 8,131.33 points.
• U.S stocks rose on Friday with the Dow scoring its biggest six-week gain since July 1938, helped by a reassuring report on the mood of consumers and stabilization in General Electric and Citigroup's quarterly results.
• European stocks advanced, capping their sixth straight week of gains after companies from Toshiba Corp to Citigroup Inc reported results that beat estimates.

 Macro and Corporate News 

• AEON Credit Service (M) is confident it can maintain a double-digit growth in net profit this year as there continues to be strong interest in its credit card and easy payment products.
• Petronas has signed an exploration and production sharing agreement with Oman to explore and sell natural gas there, strengthening its presence in Oman's O&G industry.

FKLI News + Technical Analysis (17 Apr 2009)

U.S. and European Market Roundup 

• The DJIA up 95.81 points to 8,125.43 points.
• U.S stocks surged on Thursday as expectations of reassuring results from bellwethers, including Google lifted technology shares, while JPMorgan's better-than-expected profit added to bank stabilization hopes.
• European shares hit a two-month high on Thursday as better-than-expected results from JPMorgan and soothing comments from the top cellphone maker Nokia calmed jittery investors.

 Macro and Corporate News 

• Nestle (M) has allocated RM320 mln as capex for this year with the focus on upgrades to its coffee and non-dairy creamer factories.
• Cahya Mata Sarawak’s (CMS) unit, CMS Land Sdn Bhd has secured RM232 mln worth of construction contracts from Sarawak Energy Bhd (SEB) to develop and construct the latter’s proposed headquarters building at Isthmus in Kuching.
• Astro All Asia Networks plc says it has no plans to cut its workforce by a fifth, quashing market rumours about such a move.

Market finally corrected after few days of bull run with FKLI traded higher in the morning session but turn to red due to profit taking. FKLI closed 6.5 points lower @ 952.

Bollinger band width remain in expanding mode with candle above middle BB band. This indicate potential continous bullrun with cautious as FKLI currently in overbought states indicated by RSI.

Resistance @ 971.5 while support @ 908.

HAPPY TRADING!!

Introductory To Future Trading by CIMB (Penang-23 Apr 2009)

CIMB are pleased to announce that there will be a FREE workshop in Penang on Introductory to Futures Trading organised by CIMB Investment Bank Berhad exclusively for all i*Trade@CIMB customers.

In this workshop, we will demonstrate the facility to trade futures which include FKLI & FCPO. This workshop will cover:

·         What is futures trading?

·         Why trade futures?

·         How to start futures trading?

·         Performing buy & sell

·         Charts

 

Workshop Details:

 

Date	23rd April 2009 (Thursday)
Programme	12:15 pm – Registration 12:30 pm – Introductory to Futures Trading 1:15 pm – Q & A 1.30 pm – End of workshop
Venue	CIMB Investment Bank Bhd Ground Floor, Suite 1.01 Menara Boustead 39 Jalan Sultan Ahmad Shah 10050 Penang

 

Don’t miss this OPPORTUNITY to learn and maximize the full potential from our Futures Trading services.

Contact i*Trade@CIMB Call Center at 04-2385 916 or email us at itradepg@cimb.com to register by 22^nd April 2009 (Wednesday). Registration is on a first-come-first-serve basis.

FKLI Technical Analysis - 15 Apr 2009 + News

U.S. and European Market Roundup 

• The DJIA up 109.44 points to 8,029.62 points.
• U.S stocks rose for the fourth time in five days as prospects for consumer-staples and industrial shares improved and American Express Co triggered gains in financials after saying growth in bad loans slowed.
• Over in Europe, equities were flat on Wednesday as financial stocks resumed their slide after UBS made a first-quarter loss, negating the impact of stronger drugmakers and retailers.

 Macro and Corporate News 

• Tenaga Nasional (TNB) swung to a net profit in its second quarter and it expects demand for electricity to pick up for the rest of the year as the worst is probably over.
• Cahya Mata Sarawak’s (CMS) unit, CMS Land Sdn Bhd has secured RM232 mln worth of construction contracts from Sarawak Energy Bhd (SEB) to develop and construct the latter’s proposed headquarters building at Isthmus in Kuching.

FKLI traded higher closed @ 958.50.

Bollinger Band width continue its expanding with candle touching upper BB band. MACD still in bullish mode but RSI is touched overbought area.

Resistance @ 967.5 while support @ 903

Introduction to Technical Analysis by CIMB (18 Apr 2009)

CIMB are pleased to announce that there will be a FREE talk by an investment book author, Jacinta Chan entitled “How to Trade Like a Professional in the Current Market Scenario”.

 

This talk will cover the tools and techniques that the professional traders use. You will also gain some insights on how the professional traders play the game and understand how the foreign professionals usually beat local retailers in their own markets.

 

Details as follows:

Date	Time	Venue
18th April 2009 (Saturday)	4pm - 5:30pm	MPH, MidValley

 

 

Workshop Outline:

• Understand the Fundamentals of Technical Analysis for Professional Model Trading
• Understand the Technical Tools to Use to Analyse and Trade the Current Market
• Understand the Techniques on How to Develop a Simple Mechanical Trading System

 

Speaker’s Profile:

Ms Jacinta Chan holds licenses to deal in KLSE CI Futures contracts and KLSE stocks. She had been involved in futures trading since she began as the product development officer at the exchange who designed the contract specifications. Her book, Everything Technical Analysis: How to Trade Like a Professional, has record sales volume as high as any national bestseller can hope to achieve, due to popular and necessary demand for knowledge on technical analysis and trading.

 

As seats are limited, please email to jacinta.chan@cimb.com or call 03-2710 0195 to register for this talk by Friday, 17^th April 2009.

Market Profile's 80% Rule

The Rule

If, after trading outside the Value Area, we then trade back into the Value Area (VA) and the market closes inside the VA in one of the 30 minute brackets then there is an 80% chance that the market will trade back to the other side of the VA.

Using

1. Wait for the trade to close inside the VA.

2. Try and get best possible trade entry. If possible, enter from VA level that was crossed in order to close inside VA.

3. Target most of the position at the other side of the VA.

Notes

One trader noted to me that in testing the 80% rule using TradeStation the probability is actually 62% and not 80%. The trade supposedly gets its name from the probability of the outcome of the trade. i.e. There is an 80% probability that the market will trade to the other side of the VA.

Look at your risk/reward when taking this trade. If the VA is only 2 points wide and you use a 3 point stop then this trade is probably not worth taking when the VA is this small.

Master The Stock Market Foundation (19/4/09) by CIMB

CIMB are pleased to announce that there will be a FREE preview on Master the Stock Market Foundation by Bill Wermine and Martin Wong, supported byCIMB Investment Bank Berhad. 

Come and find out how you can be a Predator (rather than a prey) in today’s volatile market and detect market “manipulation” dynamics by understanding market variables.

You will be able to learn how to use charts to “read” the market and plan for your own portfolio.

Speaker’s Profile: 

Bill Wermine is a professional Fund Manager. He is also the author of How You Can Get Rich Swing Trading.

Martin Wong is a Futures Broker. He is the author of Becoming Rich Fast: How You Can Invest Like the Very Rich.

The details of the seminar are as follows: 

Date	Time	Venue
19 April 2009 (Sunday)	2:00pm - 5:00pm	CIMB Auditorium Bangunan CIMB Jalan Semantan Damansara Heights 50490 Kuala Lumpur

 

Registration fee: Free (normal preview fee is RM 98)

Don’t miss this OPPORTUNITY! Click here for the preview guide.

As the seats are limited, please call 03 42524149 or 016 6371508 for registration now!

FKLI Technical Analysis - 10 Apr 2009

FKLI traded higher with overnight DJ closed 200+ points higher as well as Malaysia new cabinet on board. FKLI closed 20.5 points higher @ 946 with 7050 lots transacted.

Bollinger band width still in expansion mode with candle touching upper BB band. MACD also in bullish mode but some profit taking can take place in between.

Support @ 895, 891, 887 while resistance @ 958, 962, 966

HAPPY TRADING!!

FKLI Technical Analysis - 09 Apr 2009

FKLI traded higher ahead of new cabinet announcement as well as keeping the strength after announcment has been made. FKLI closed 12.5 points higher @ 925.5.

Bollinger band width remain constant with candle staying above middle BB band. Midlle BB band become the major support while resistance resides in the upper BB line.

Can expect some profit taking due to the uptrend. However some upside about DowJone break 8000 points and trader are adviced to be cautious when jumping in any position.

Support @ 889, 885, 881 while resistance @ 932, 936, 940

HAPPY TRADING!

FKLI Technical Analysis - 08 Apr 2009

FKLI open 8 points lower at 909.5 due to tumble in Wall street. Overall buying in the morning session however push back by strong selling pressure. FKLI closed 4.5 points lower @ 913.

Bollinger Band width showing some sign of contracting indicating consolidation in the short term. Candle still above middle BB band with middle BB band as a support.

Support @ 877 while resistance @ 931.

HAPPY TRADING!

Where is the market likely to close? – Part 2

Open to Close

The following shows a cross tabulation of where the market closed given where it opened. Before looking at the result table I wrote down what I expected the results to be. I expected that if the market opened above the VA then it is more likely to close above the VA than in any other area etc. These are the results of around 1,700 trading days of the ES.

			Close
		Above	In	Below	Total
	Above	65%	19%	16%	34%
Open	In	35%	33%	32%	36%
	Below	14%	21%	64%	30%
	Total	39%	25%	36%	100%

 

Ignore the Total column on the right to start with.

The top row shows us that of all the trades that opened above the VA, 65% closed above the VA, 19% in the VA and 16% below the VA. The next two rows are self explanatory and follow the same pattern. These figures are pretty much what we would expect except that the middle row is slightly off but by little enough that we can ignore this.

The bottom row (Total) shows us that irrespective of where the market opened (i.e. ignoring where the market opened) the market closed above the VA 39% of the time, in the VA 25% of the time and below the VA 36% of the time. This is more skewed than I would have initially expected.

The Total column at the end shows the averages of where the market opens in relation to the VA. This is roughly split into thirds each which is what we would expect.

On subsequent inspection the closing averages (bottom row) are not as surprising as I would expect. The value area is a restricted area based on 70% of the previous session's TPO count. As such the area above and below the VA gives far more area to move in and therefore more opportunity for price to occupy. i.e. more data points which the price can trade at exist on either side of the VA (far more prices) and this I believe explains this apparent anomaly.

Open to Traded

This next table shows us the percentage of times the market traded above, in or below the VA given where it opened.

					Traded
		Above	In	Below
	Above	100%	66%	30%
Open	In	66%	100%	64%
	Below	27%	68%	100%

 

This just deals with the open of the market (one of above, in or below VA) and where it subsequently traded. Obviously if a market opens above the VA then it will trade above the VA so 100% of the times that the market opens above VA it trades above VA.

If we take a look at the first row we see that when the market opens above VA it will trade in the VA 66% of the time and below the VA 30% of the time.

Does this make fading a down move at the bottom of the VA a good trade if the market opens above the VA? I don't know yet, that is on my list of strategies to back test. That will be posted in the Strategies part of the web once I have tested it.

 

CIMB Cross Border Trading Workshop-Penang (9/4/2009)

CIMB are pleased to announce that there will be a FREE workshop on Introductory to Cross Border Trading organised by CIMB Investment Bank Berhad exclusively for all i*Trade@CIMB customers.

 

In this workshop, we will demonstrate the facility to trade in the Non-Ringgit markets which include the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX), Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKSE), New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ and the American Stock Exchange (AMEX). This workshop will cover:

 

·         Registering and activating your access

·         Stock search

·         Favourite list of stocks

·         Performing buy & sell

·         Charts

·         Research

 

Workshop Details:

 

Date	9th April 2009 (Thursday)
Programme	12:00 pm – Registration   12:15 pm – Introductory to Cross Border Trading   1:30 pm – Q & A   1:45 pm – End of workshop
Venue	CIMB Investment Bank Berhad   Ground Floor Suite 1.01 Menara Boustead 39 Jalan Sultan Ahmad Shah 10050 Penang

 

Don’t miss this OPPORTUNITY to learn and maximize the full potential from our Cross Border Trading services.

 

Contact i*Trade@CIMB at 04-2385 916 or email us at itradepg@cimb.com to register by 8^th April 2009 (Wednesday). Registration is on a first-come-first-serve basis

FKLI Technical Analysis - 06 Apr 2009

FKLI traded higher with 10,377 lots transacted and closed 16.5 points @ 926.5.

Bollinger Band width continue to expand with candle riding above upper BB band. MACD chart continue moving up north indicating continue bull run. 

However there is some potential of Profit Taking moving forward with RSI chart showing overbought level.

Support @ 921, 917, 913 while resistance @ 933, 937, 941.

HAPPY TRADING!

FKLI Technical Analysis - 02 Apr 2009

G20 effect plus Malaysia new Prime Minister on boarding on Friday causing FKLI traded higher closed @ 913.

Bollinger Band width expanding with candle ABOVE upper BB band indicating bull run for FKLI. RSI reaching oversold level.

Support @ 904.5 while resistance @ 920. Immediate support @ 908.5, 904.5, 900 while resistance @ 917, 920, 924.

Bollinger Band				SMA
Upper	Mid	Lower	Width	20	60	100
904.5	866	827.5	Expanding	866	883.5	878.5

 

HAPPY TRADING!