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FKLI Technical Analysis - 27 Mar 2009

Monday, March 30, 2009

FKLI-Mar09
Profit taking on last Friday mades FKLI traded lower but by end of the day unchanged closing @ 887. 

Bollinger Band width contracting indicates some technical adjustment happened to FKLI-SPOT

Immediate support @ middle BB band 863 while resistance @ upper BB band 897.


FKLI-Apr09
Some active trading begin to be seen for FKLI-Apr09 2 more trading days prior to FKLI-Mar09 maturity. FKLI-Apr09 closed 3 points lower @ 884 with total volume of 7325 lots transacted.

Bollinger Band width also begin to contract indicating same technical adjustment to the market. Immediate support @ middle BB 860 while resistance @ upport BB band 894.


FKLI-APR09: Intraday support @ 874, 870, 866 & resistance @ 894, 898, 902 

HAPPY TRADING!! 

FKLI Technical Analysis - 26 Mar 2009

Friday, March 27, 2009

FKLI traded higher closing 2.5points higher @ 887 with higher trading volume of 11869 lots transacted. 


Bollinger Band width slightly contracted but candle ramain above middle BB band. MACD performing a golden cross indicating bullish signal ahead. With further push up from participation/volume, further upside can be seen.


Support @ middle BB band 864 with resistance @ upper BB band 899.
Intraday support @ 876, 872, 868 while resistance @ 899, 903, 907

HAPPY TRADING!!

FKLI Technical Analysis - 25 Mar 2009

Thursday, March 26, 2009

FKLI rally again due to US stocks closed higher but trader selling pressurize the performance of FKLI. FKLI closed 6.5points lower @ 876.5


Bollinger Band width remain cosistance with candle above middle BB band with MACD line heading up north suggesting further room for bull.

Support @ middle BB band @ 864 while resistance @ upper BB band @ 900.

Intraday support @ 872, 868 while resistance @ 884, 888, 892

Where is the market likely to close? – Part 1

Wednesday, March 25, 2009


Calculating the close

This article assumes a basic understanding of Market Profile and the terms used in Market Profile. No attempt is made here to explain those terms.

Open Trade Close Market Profile

The purpose of this study is to determine where the market is likely to close and trade given one of three Market Profile positional openings. The market can open abovein or below the Value Area. We want to know by the end of this study (1) where the market is likely to close (given its open) and (2) where the market is likely to trade (given its open).

The types of questions that you will be able to answer at the end of this article and studying the tables in it are:

  • If the market opens above the Value Area then what is the chance that it will close (1) above the Value Area, (2) in the Value Area, and (3) below the Value Area? (and all other combinations of this question)
  • If the market opens below the Value Area then what is the chance of it trading (at some point during the day) in and/or above the Value Area? (and all other combinations of this question)

This article does not attempt to suggest or give trading recommendations as no calculations have been done on Value Area size and/or distance the market may open from the Value Area. The data calculated for this article was calculated with the intention of producing tables of probabilities which will eventually lead to back tests being run using Market Profile to help develop strategies.

Fair Data

The first question I ask myself when back testing a strategy is: What was the back drop to the period in question when the strategy was run? If, for example, our strategy was to buy the open and sell the close and our back test showed this to be a fantastically profitable strategy I would be less impressed if I was then told that the period over which the test was run saw the market rise by 50%. I would also want to know how many days of data went into the back test.

It's no different for creating statistical tables. You need sufficient data over a period which has seen a good cross section of market conditions.

FKLI Technical Analysis - 24 Mar 2009

FKLI rally on 24 Mar 2009 due to traders' profit taking ended 6.5points lower @ 876.5 with total volume of 8367 lots transacted.


From the chart on the left Bollinger Band width slightly contracting but candle still remain above middle BB band. This has made middle BB band the immediate support line for FKLI. MACD golden cross successfully and heading up north.

Immediate support @ 872, 868, 864 while resistance @ 893, 889, 885

HAPPY TRADING!!

Double Initial Balance

Tuesday, March 24, 2009


Calculating DIB in Market Profile

Calculating

Calculating Double Initial Balance (DIB) is easy:

1. Wait for the Initial Balance (IB) to form. This is usually the first hour of trading.

2. From this we get the IB High and Low: IBH and IBL. (The high and low during the first hour of trading.)

3. Calculate the IB Range (IBH - IBL) from these two figures. Let's call that IBR.

4. Add the IBR to the IBH and this gives us the Double Initial Balance High: DIBH

5. Subtract the IBR from the IBL and this gives us the Double Initial Balance Low: DIBL

More Calculations

Triple and Quadruple the IB can also be calculated. Add and subtract the IBR to and from the DIBH/DIBL to get the etc. to get the subsequent levels.

Using

DIB levels are used in Market Profile trading as support and resistance lines. We usually look for the market to turn at these lines which make them counter trend trades.

DIB appears to be more effective when the IB is normal to large in size and not as good with small IBs. (This has not been quantified in tests but is the general belief in Market Profile.)

FKLI Technical Analysis - 23 Mar 2009

Due to impact from UMNO coming election Malaysia stock market and FKLI has been traded higher. FKLI begin & traded higher on Monday closed 22.5 points @ 883 with total volume of 9804 lots transacted. 


Bollinger band width begin to expand with candle moving above middle BB band. This is a good sign for bull run plus MACD golden cross at this stage.

Immediate support @ 873, 869, 865 while resistance @ 894, 898, 902

FKLI Technical Analysis - 20 Mar 2009

Monday, March 23, 2009

FKLI closed 4.5points higher @ 860.5.


Bollinger band width continue contracting but candle moving towards middle BB band. This has made middle BB band the resistance.

Immediate support @ 859, 855, 851 while resistance @ 865, 869, 873

FKLI Technical Analysis - 19 Mar 2009

Friday, March 20, 2009

FKLI closed 2points higher @ 856 with total volume of 5175 lots transacted.


Bollinger Band width remain consistant with candle moving towards middle BB band with MACD getting golden cross suggesting potential uptrend.

Immediate support 841, 837, 834 @ while resistance @ 859, 863, 866

What is Market Profile?

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Market Profile is a graphical organization of price and time information. Market Profile displays price on the vertical axis and time on the horizontal axis. Letters are used to symbolize time brackets. Marketprofile is an analytical decision support tool for traders-not a trading system.

Market Profile reveals pricing patterns from any market as they develop. By effectively organizing price and time information, it is possible for traders to see which price areas the market is accepting or which ones it is rejecting…and adjust their trading style accordingly.

A price level that has been confirmed over time takes on added meaning. A price that is touched only briefly is just a price and little more. Confirmed by time, however, a price can reveal market value.

J. Peter Steidlmayer developed Market Profile in the 1980s in conjunction with the Chicago Board of Trade. Traders who use it say that they get an in-depth understanding of the market, contributing to improved trading. Many factors can be monitored from Market Profile.

Market Profile is not an indicator in the typical sense. It does not provide buy/sell recommendations but acts more like a decision-support tool. It organizes the data so that you can understand who is in control of the market, what is perceived as fair value, and the direction of the price move. It is possible to extract enough information from Market Profile for you to position your trades more advantageously.

Market Profile is useful for the pit trader as well as the off-floor trader. The indicator can help the off-floor trader get a better sense of the market; prior to the introduction of Market Profile, only floor traders had access to this information. Although all references here refer to using futures contracts, Market Profile can be used just as effectively for other tradables. Software vendors such as CQG and WindoTrader provide Market Profile displays for equities.

IN THEORY

The concept of Market Profile stems from the idea that markets have a form of organization determined by time, price, and volume. Each day, the market will develop a range for the day and a value area, which represents an equilibrium point where there are an equal number of buyers and sellers. In this area, prices never stay stagnant. They are constantly diverging, and Market Profile records this activity for traders to interpret.

Market Profile is based on the normal distribution curve, wherein approximately 70% of the values fall within one standard deviation of the average. If you rotate the normal distribution curve so that price is along the vertical axis and time on the horizontal axis (as shown in Figure above), you have the structure of Market Profile.

A normal distribution curve assumes that the number of occurrences follow a bell-shaped curve. Anyone who has traded in the markets, however, knows that prices never follow a definite pattern; in fact, you rarely see a normal distribution. What you do see are skewed distribution of prices, which makes it possible to see the price at which most of the trades actually took place. This provides significant clues about the direction of prices and is the groundwork for understanding Market Profile. In theory, this helps the trader identify where prices are in relation to values.

Monitoring price distribution over time gives insight into what levels are considered fair and unfair. You may take advantage of this information and identify good trading opportunities.

FKLI Technical Analysis - 18 Mar 2009

Dow Jones positive closing lead regional market and FKLI traded higher with higher volume of 8166 lots transacted and closed 13.5pts higher @ 854.


Bollinger Band width remain consistant with candle below mid BB band suggesting consolidation still in progress. 

Immediate support @ 837, 833, 829and resistance @ 858, 862, 866

HAPPY TRADING!

FKLI Technical Analysis - 17 Mar 2009

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

FKLI traded low at the begining but climb up to 853 point in the mid day but declining and closed 3points lower @ 841.5. Total volume higher than yesterday with 6702 lots transacted.


Bollinger Band width still contracting with candle moving sideway suggesting consolidation stage. Prediction is FKLI will remain sideway until BB band width begin to expand.

MACD chart still in bearish mode but begin to round up while RSI remain in neautral ground.

Immediate support @ 834, 830, 826 while resistance @ 848, 852, 857.5

HAPPY TRADING!!

FKLI Technical Analysis - 17 Mar 2009

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

FKLI closed 4points higher @ 844.50 with total volume of 5888 lots transacted. 


Overall FKLI still in bearish mode but Bollinger Band width begin to contract with MACD forming a rounding up pattern suggesting potential rebound.

Immediate support @ 837, 832, 828 and resistance @ 846, 850, 854.

HAPPT TRADING!

FKLI Technical Analysis - 13 Mar 2009

Monday, March 16, 2009

FKLI closed 4.5pts higher @ 840.5 with total volume of 6429 lots transacted.


From the chart Bollinger Band width still expanding with candle begin to move away from lower BB band suggesting potential FKLI rebound.

Immediate support @ 839, 835, 831 while resitance @ 847, 858, 870.

HAPPY TRADING!

How is DMA Screen Look & Feel?

Friday, March 13, 2009

To most of the traders who interested to know how DMA screens looks like, we managed to capture some of the screen and post it here for sharing.

**Special thanks to Uri who contribute to all the screen capture**

First screen after login. We can view the current pricing for FKLI break down by month.

Second screen illustrate the screen on how we enter our orders

Third screen illustrate charting available in DMA.








FKLI Technical Analysis - 12 Mar 2009

FKLI traded lower again on 12 Mar 2009 with total volume of 7278 lots transacted and closed@ 835 which is 12 points lower than 11 Mar 2009.


Bollinger Band width expanding with candle continue riding at lower BB band plus no sign of MACD rounding up suggesting FKLI still in bearish mode.

Immediate support @ 835, 831, 827 and resistance @ 847, 858, 870

HAPPY TRADING!

Some Key Term for Market Profile

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Sometimes ago we have an expert trader who mentioned some key words related to Market Profile and I think it will be beneficial to share those key term. Hopefully it will be usefull if I managed to post any future articles related to market profile. Enjoy!

1. Initial balance - market activity in the first hour
2. Range extension - price action extending beyond the initial balance
3. Range - range from high to low
4. Single print buying tails - any single print TPO's at the lower extreme of the profile
5. Single print selling tails - any single print TPO's at the upper extreme of the profile
6. Point of control (POC) - price level of most volume. POC indicates an area of greatest market activity
7. TPO - stands for Time Price Opportunity. Letters are used to build the market profile structure. Each letter represents a half hour period. The letter is also known as the TPO.
8. Value are - price range in which approximately 70% of the market volume took place.
9. Value high - the upper pivot of the value area
10. Value low - the lower pivot of the value area

FKLI Technial Analysis - 11 Mar 2009

FKLI open higher following by mini budget annoucement the day before but sliding down closed @ 847 with total volume of 7769 transacted.


As shown on the daily chart above, Bollinger band width still expanding with candle riding along lower BB band, plus MACD chart continue heading south indicating bearish trend continuous. 

Support @  846, 842, 838 while resistance @ 857, 862, 874

HAPPY TRADING! 

Asia Trader & Investor Convention (ATIC) 14-15 Mar 2009

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Have you made up your mind to spend this weekend (14-15 March 2009) at the Asia Trader & Investor Convention (ATIC)?.  

You can still get your FREE Entry Ticket (worth RM28) from your assigned dealer or call customer service at 03-2070 9800. 

With the Entry Ticket, you will be able to attend the Exhibition and Investment Seminars. There are a whole bunch of interesting topics, such as:

         Tomorrow's News Today by Teoh Chang Yeow, Analyst, Jupiter Securities

         Debunking The Myths and Avoiding Common Mistakes by Dale Gillham, fund manager, author, educator

         When Market Will Bottom and How Deep is the Current Subprime Crisis: A Brave Technical Outlook for 2009 by Mohd Nazri Khan, MIMB Investment Bank

         Support and Resistance Simplified by Bill Wermine, Phillip Capital

         How to Play the Volatile Market by Kenny Wong, Currency Strategist, FXCM Asia

         Powertreads – Practical Trading Approach by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, Nextview

         Multiple Time Frame Strategy in High Volatile Markets by Alan Hing, Institutional Trainer

         Successful Trading in Turbulent Times by Lee Cheng Hooi, Mayban Investment Bank

         Translate Your Opinion of the Market into an Options Position with a Mathematical Edge by Paul Forchione

         Investor Clinic – Panel discussion

 
 

For the full program schedule, please click on the following links:

 
 

http://www.theatic.net/program_day1.php

 
 

http://www.theatic.net/program_day2.php

 
 

The Master Trading Workshop and Indicator Symposium are separate payable sessions. For the Master Trading Ticket, you can buy any 3 tickets for RM120  or the Indicator Symposium for both days at RM250 via

 
 

http://www.theatic.net/atic_registration.php?aid=70 

(The bundle ticket price is valid until this Friday).

FKLI Technical Analysis - 10 Mar 2009

FKLI traded lower yesterday but closing the gap in the late afternoon during mini budget announcement starting @ 4pm yesterday.


Bollinger Band width still in expanding mode with candle below mid BB band and MACD still continue heading south.

Immediate support @ 857, 854, 850 while resistance @ 868, 871, 875.

FKLI Technical Analysis - 06 Mar 2009

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

FKLI traded lower on 06 Mar 2009 with narrow range and thin volume. FKLI closed 8 points lower and total volume of 6289 transactions traded.


From the chart above Bollinger Band width expanding with candle near to lower BB ban as well as MACD chart moving down south suggesting further downside.

With DJ closing -79.89 points plus uncertain mini budget announcement today will lower the possibility of bull attack.

Immediate support @ 857, 850 while resistance @ 868, 871.

HAPPY TRADING!

FKLI Technical Analysis - 05 Mar 2009

Friday, March 6, 2009

FKLI open higher on Thursday drawn by DJ rising but closed lower @ 868 points with total volume of 7336 transactions.


MACD line heading south and Bollinger Band width expanding but candle resides below slightly above lower BB band suggesting continous bearish trend.

DJ closed -4.09% will draw FKLI lower which is a good opportunity for SHORT. Support @ 860, 857 while resistance @ 886, 889.  

HAPPY TRADING!

FKLI Technical Analysis - 04 Mar 2009

Wednesday, March 4, 2009


FKLI closed higher today @ 872, which is 9points higher than closing price on 03 Mar 2009 with total volume of 5511 transactions. 

Immediate support @ lower BB band 861.5 while resistance @ 887,889 & 912.

HAPPY TRADING.

FKLI Technical Analysis - 03 Mar 2009

FKLI open low following on with DJ reddish effect but recovering to close same as yesterday with same trading volume as well.


Bollinger Band width expansion with candle moving along lower BB band as well as MACD heading south indicating FKLI is in bearish mode.

DJ close -37.27 tonight and no good news forecast will keep FKLI continue its bearish mode.
Immediate support @ lower BB line 861 & 858 while resistance sits @ SMA(20) 886 following with SMA(100) 890.

HAPPY TRADING!

Gap Trading Strategies - Part 2

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

The Gap Trading Strategies

Each of the four gap types has a long and short trading signal, defining the eight gap trading strategies. The basic tenet of gap trading is to allow one hour after the market opens for the stock price to establish its range. A Modified Trading Method, to be discussed later, can be used with any of the eight primary strategies to trigger trades before the first hour, although it involves more risk. Once a position is entered, you calculate and set an 8% trailing stop to exit a long position, and a 4% trailing stop to exit a short position. A trailing stop is simply an exit threshold that follows the rising price or falling price in the case of short positions.

Long Example: You buy a stock at $100. You set the exit at no more than 8% below that, or $92. If the price rises to $120, you raise the stop to $110.375, which is approximately 8% below $120. The stop keeps rising as long as the stock price rises. In this manner, you follow the rise in stock price with either a real or mental stop that is executed when the price trend finally reverses.

Short Example: You short a stock at $100. You set the Buy-to-Cover at $104 so that a trend reversal of 4% would force you to exit the position. If the price drops to $90, you recalculate the stop at 4% above that number, or $93 to Buy-to-Cover.

The eight primary strategies are as follows:

Full Gaps

Full Gap Up: Long

If a stock's opening price is greater than yesterday's high, revisit the 1-minute chart after 10:30 am and set a long (buy) stop two ticks above the high achieved in the first hour oftrading. (Note: A 'tick' is defined as the bid/ask spread, usually 1/8 to 1/4 point, depending on the stock.)

Full Gap Up: Short

If the stock gaps up, but there is insufficient buying pressure to sustain the rise, the stock price will level or drop below the opening gap price. Traders can set similar entry signals for short positions as follows:

If a stock's opening price is greater than yesterday's high, revisit the 1-minute chart after 10:30 am and set a short stop equal to two ticks below the low achieved in the first hour of trading.

Full Gap Down: Long

Poor earnings, bad news, organizational changes and market influences can cause a stock's price to drop uncharacteristically. A full gap down occurs when the price is below not only the previous day's close, but the low of the day before as well. A stock whose price opens in a full gap down, then begins to climb immediately, is known as a "Dead Cat Bounce."

If a stock's opening price is less than yesterday's low, set a long stop equal to two ticks more than yesterday's low.

Full Gap Down: Short

If a stock's opening price is less than yesterday's low, revisit the 1-minute chart after 10:30 am and set a short stop equal to two ticks below the low achieved in the first hour oftrading.

Partial Gaps

The difference between a Full and Partial Gap is risk and potential gain. In general, a stock gapping completely above the previous day's high has a significant change in the market's desire to own or sell it. Demand is large enough to force the market maker or floor specialist to make a major price change to accommodate the unfilled orders. Full gapping stocks generally trend farther in one direction than stocks which only partially gap. However, a smaller demand may just require the trading floor to only move price above or below the previous close in order to trigger buying or selling to fill on-hand orders. There is a generally a greater opportunity for gain over several days in full gapping stocks.

If there is not enough interest in selling or buying a stock after the initial orders are filled, the stock will return to its trading range quickly. Entering a trade for a partially gapping stock generally calls for either greater attention or closer trailing stops of 5-6%.

Partial Gap Up: Long

If a stock's opening price is greater than yesterday's close, but not greater than yesterday's high, the condition is considered a Partial Gap Up. The process for a long entry is the same for Full Gaps in that one revisits the 1-minute chart after 10:30 am and set a long (buy) stop two ticks above the high achieved in the first hour of trading.

Partial Gap Up: Short

The short trade process for a partial gap up is the same for Full Gaps in that one revisits the 1-minute chart after 10:30 am and sets a short stop two ticks below the low achieved in the first hour of trading.

Partial Gap Down: Long

If a stock's opening price is less than yesterday's close, revisit the 1 minute chart after 10:30 am and set a buy stop two ticks above the high achieved in the first hour of trading.

Partial Gap Down: Short

The short trade process for a partial gap down is the same for Full Gap Down in that one revisits the 1-minute chart after 10:30AM and sets a short stop two ticks below the low achieved in the first hour of trading.

If a stock's opening price is less than yesterday's close, set a short stop equal to two ticks less than the low achieved in the first hour of trading today.

If the volume requirement is not met, the safest way to play a partial gap is to wait until the price breaks the previous high (on a long trade) or low (on a short trade).

End-of-day Gap Trading

All eight of the Gap Trading Strategies can also be applied to end-of-day trading. Using StockCharts.com's Gap Scans, end-of-day traders can review those stocks with the best potential. Increases in volume for stocks gapping up or down is a strong indication of continued movement in the same direction of the gap. A gapping stock that crosses above resistance levels provides reliable entry signals. Similarly, a short position would be signaled by a stock whose gap down fails support levels.

What is the Modified Trading Method?

The Modified Trading Method applies to all eight Full and Partial Gap scenarios above. The only difference is instead of waiting until the price breaks above the high (or below the low for a short); you enter the trade in the middle of the rebound. The other requirement for this method is that the stock should be trading on at least twice the average volume for the last five days. This method is only recommended for those individuals who are proficient with the eight strategies above, and have fast trade execution systems. Since heavy volumetrading can experience quick reversals, mental stops are usually used instead of hard stops.

Modified Trading Method: Long

If a stock's opening price is greater than yesterday's high, revisit the 1 minute chart after 10:30 am and set a long stop equal to the average of the open price and the high price achieved in the first hour of trading. This method recommends that the projected daily volume be double the 5-day average.

Modified Trading Method: Short

If a stock's opening price is less than yesterday's low, revisit the 1 minute chart after 10:30 am and set a long stop equal to the average of the open and low price achieved in the first hour of trading. This method recommends that the projected daily volume be double the 5-day average.

 

FKLI Technical Analysis - 02 Mar 2009

Monday, March 2, 2009

The impact of US DJ and the gloom on the economy front continued to haunt our market today with FKLI tumble 25 points with 50% additional trading volume compared with last Friday.


Market immediate support @ 864, 861 while resistance fall in 887,892. RSI moving to oversold level and Bollinger Band width started to expand with candle sitting at lower mid BB band. This suggesting pontential further downside unless trader hear some good news somewhere.

Happy Trading.

FKLI Technical Analysis - 27 Feb 2009


FKLI Mar 2009 closed @ 888 which is 7 points lower than the opening price. Most traders has started to focus on FKLI Mar 2009 with total volume of 5271 transacted.

As indicated by the Bollinger band, the width still remain constant with RSI stay in neutral zone.

Immediate support @ 885, 867 and resistance @ SMA (100) 893, 909.

HAPPY TRADING.

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